Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Of Polls and Perception
Once again, sorry for the long layoff.
We've seen a new CBS/USAToday/Gallup poll suggesting that George Bush enjoys a decent lead in the election. 201k does not believe this poll.
Many questions have been raised recently about flawed polling techniques -- especially those used by Gallup. These include oversampling of Republicans and questionable methodology for determining "likely voters". Compare this poll to several others which show the race as a statistical dead heat, and you start to wonder a bit.
201k has been around long enough to have developed a level of cynicism that's both thorough and uncanny. We have yet to be disappointed by being pleasantly surprised.
We thought the election of 2000 was the nadir of American politics, but fear that 2004 will surpass it. Months ago we brought upon ourselves an avalanche of email by expressing the concern that the Bush administration would not leave office even if they were voted out, and, more to the point, that the media wouldn't object. Certainly nothing that has happened since has changed our mind about this. When a sitting Republican president and his surrogates openly suggest that a vote for their Democratic opponent is a vote for terrorists and/or a terrorist attack, they have entered a new realm of power-playing for power's sake. Worse, when the only objections raised to such talk appear on the editorial pages of dusty gray newspapers, you've entered a new realm of democratic irresponsibility.
Neither development is conducive to the survival of the republic. We may indeed be entering a new era in America. Perhaps we already did, and 201k missed it. How ironic if our mistake was in not being cynical enough.
We have trouble believing that George Bush and the Republican party will give up the executive branch just because a majority of voters -- even electoral college voters -- choose someone else. They paid too much for it.
Simply put, we believe these polls inaccurately suggest that Bush is ahead in the election so that it will seem plausible when the Republicans steal it.
Remember, these are businessmen, not "public servants". Their way of thinking is this: better to win the election and face questions about its legitimacy than lose it and not face those questions. Win first, deal with the questions later -- that's what they did in 2000, and that's what they'll do this November.
As it happens, a friend emailed last night with a thought from her mother that surpasses even our own cynicism -- no mean feat. The mother, you should know, came to America as a teenager fleeing the Nazi invasion of Poland. Here's what she had to say:
We've seen a new CBS/USAToday/Gallup poll suggesting that George Bush enjoys a decent lead in the election. 201k does not believe this poll.
Many questions have been raised recently about flawed polling techniques -- especially those used by Gallup. These include oversampling of Republicans and questionable methodology for determining "likely voters". Compare this poll to several others which show the race as a statistical dead heat, and you start to wonder a bit.
201k has been around long enough to have developed a level of cynicism that's both thorough and uncanny. We have yet to be disappointed by being pleasantly surprised.
We thought the election of 2000 was the nadir of American politics, but fear that 2004 will surpass it. Months ago we brought upon ourselves an avalanche of email by expressing the concern that the Bush administration would not leave office even if they were voted out, and, more to the point, that the media wouldn't object. Certainly nothing that has happened since has changed our mind about this. When a sitting Republican president and his surrogates openly suggest that a vote for their Democratic opponent is a vote for terrorists and/or a terrorist attack, they have entered a new realm of power-playing for power's sake. Worse, when the only objections raised to such talk appear on the editorial pages of dusty gray newspapers, you've entered a new realm of democratic irresponsibility.
Neither development is conducive to the survival of the republic. We may indeed be entering a new era in America. Perhaps we already did, and 201k missed it. How ironic if our mistake was in not being cynical enough.
We have trouble believing that George Bush and the Republican party will give up the executive branch just because a majority of voters -- even electoral college voters -- choose someone else. They paid too much for it.
Simply put, we believe these polls inaccurately suggest that Bush is ahead in the election so that it will seem plausible when the Republicans steal it.
Remember, these are businessmen, not "public servants". Their way of thinking is this: better to win the election and face questions about its legitimacy than lose it and not face those questions. Win first, deal with the questions later -- that's what they did in 2000, and that's what they'll do this November.
As it happens, a friend emailed last night with a thought from her mother that surpasses even our own cynicism -- no mean feat. The mother, you should know, came to America as a teenager fleeing the Nazi invasion of Poland. Here's what she had to say:
"...[my friends in] my mother's generation who have survived WWII and moved here for the democracy are HORRIFIED. Of course my mother thinks the world is a bad place and we have had it good for a while so why am I surprised? She doesn't think it will correct in her life time."How's that, folks? The world's intrinsically evil, and though we may have fled fascism to democracy for a while, evil always catches up -- and didn't you know that?
