Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Wow, what a coincidence...
As we feared.
Apparently we're supposed to believe two things:
1. That 113 million people showed up to vote, and more of them voted for George Bush.
2. That the exit polls were somehow completely wrong in the two states, Ohio and Florida, where there were the most questions about the integrity of the vote-counting.
Anyone out there think Bush really got more votes?
Apparently we're supposed to believe two things:
1. That 113 million people showed up to vote, and more of them voted for George Bush.
2. That the exit polls were somehow completely wrong in the two states, Ohio and Florida, where there were the most questions about the integrity of the vote-counting.
Anyone out there think Bush really got more votes?
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http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/news/11284237.htm
Group says chance of exit polls being so wrong in '04 vote is one-in-959,000
By Stephen Dyer, Akron Beacon Journal
There's a one-in-959,000 chance that exit polls could have been so wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2004 presidential election, according to a statistical analysis released Thursday.
Exit polls in the November election showed Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., winning by 3 percent, but President George W. Bush won the vote count by 2.5 percent.
The explanation for the discrepancy that was offered by the exit polling firm -- that Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polling -- is an "implausible theory," according to the report issued Thursday by US Count Votes, a group that claims it's made up of about two dozen statisticians.
Twelve -- including a Case Western Reserve University mathematics instructor -- signed the report.
Instead, the data support the idea that "corruption of the vote count occurred more freely in districts that were overwhelmingly Bush strongholds."
The report dismisses chance and inaccurate exit polling as the reasons for their discrepancy with the results.
They found that the one hypothesis that can't be ruled out is inaccurate election results.
"The hypothesis that the voters' intent was not accurately recorded or counted... needs further investigation," it said.
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Group says chance of exit polls being so wrong in '04 vote is one-in-959,000
By Stephen Dyer, Akron Beacon Journal
There's a one-in-959,000 chance that exit polls could have been so wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2004 presidential election, according to a statistical analysis released Thursday.
Exit polls in the November election showed Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., winning by 3 percent, but President George W. Bush won the vote count by 2.5 percent.
The explanation for the discrepancy that was offered by the exit polling firm -- that Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polling -- is an "implausible theory," according to the report issued Thursday by US Count Votes, a group that claims it's made up of about two dozen statisticians.
Twelve -- including a Case Western Reserve University mathematics instructor -- signed the report.
Instead, the data support the idea that "corruption of the vote count occurred more freely in districts that were overwhelmingly Bush strongholds."
The report dismisses chance and inaccurate exit polling as the reasons for their discrepancy with the results.
They found that the one hypothesis that can't be ruled out is inaccurate election results.
"The hypothesis that the voters' intent was not accurately recorded or counted... needs further investigation," it said.
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